SORTING OUT THE MESS: AN UNCLE TO HIS NIECE ON THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN THE FALL OF 2019
This was published last year in “2020 The Year That Changed America Edited by Kevin Powell”(kepo Inc.)
She wrote, “I’m worried as well and can’t seem to decide which Democrat I think can win! Who do you think?” This was my response.
Thanks for the excuse of trying to unpack your question that’s on everyone’s mind.
From inside my Upper West Side liberal bubble it’s hard to get a picture of what’s going on west of the Hudson. The prospect of Trump winning a second term is real, horrifying, and sickening.
The thing about being retired is that I can schmooze about politics with you on a Thursday morning before starting my “workday”. I’ll spend the rest of today writing unpublished letters to the editor and inquiries to various disinterested authors, talking for hours to tech support then rejecting requests to complete a brief survey on how well John Smith in Manila addressed my issues, or trying to get an airline to waive the $60 charge to reserve an aisle seat because of my knee. Then there’s lunch somewhere between 12 p.m. and 12:03 p.m. to provide me with the energy to try unsuccessfully to make sense of endless Medicare forms before my beloved afternoon nap Now on to your question.
The interesting overarching mystery to me is why any sane person would want to be president. The answer is that only someone who is bat shit crazy would want that job, even those who were really good at hiding it like Obama was.
The other factor and the only glimmer of hope is the extent of damage Trump and the Republican brand are suffering as the impeachment process exposes Trump as a grifter without a soul,
and more Americans inside the ReFoxican smoke machine get a look at the man behind the curtain and the corrosive damage he has done to the country.
The mobs of screaming Trump ReFoxicans, channeling their political ancestors from 1939 Berlin, who wanted to make Germany “great again,” are hopelessly beyond the gravitational pull of Earth’s fact-based atmosphere. The big question is whether any sectors of Republican voters, who are not knuckle scraping Neanderthals, can be peeled away. [See my Warren wildcard prediction below].
As of now, Nov 1, 2019, there are 17 Democrats still standing. Ugh. The short list of key “holy grail” voting sectors that the Democrats need to mobilize to beat Trump seem to be:
1. The Republican “Colin Powell’ middle — who are nauseous at what has become of their party and still have a sense of right and wrong and will never vote for Trump. The Democrat needs to be someone who will make them want to come out from under the covers on Election Day.
2. Black people — — Motivating Black people to vote for another white politician who suddenly shows up in their churches to hug the minister is a major problem for the Dems.
There is also the impact of the Republican decades long Jim Crow 2.0, full court press to stop black and brown people from voting;
3. Suburban women —college educated and physically revolted by Trump, but hard to predict because they have internal bullshit detectors that are well honed from years of wrangling their kids to do their homework. There is also the fact that keeping a job and running a family often leaves them too exhausted to do anything but have a glass of wine and go to bed.
4. Bernie’s army — — active angry young people. It’s inspiring but I’m worried that they are quasi-cultish and not big picture, eyes on the prize, flexible types who will join the fight when Bernie is not the nominee.
Now, for my predictions on which candidates will secure which voting blocks.
Warren is the best candidate although increasingly personally annoying. She is the only one I can see knocking the Orange Godzilla off his feet in the professional wrestling ring of a national debate. She also has an SNL problem because when she talks I keep seeing Kate McKinnon.
Now she has thrown her Hail Mary “Medicare for All” pass which may be the reason she wins or loses.
Maybe she will get votes from suburban women and Bernie’s army but less from black people. Votes from the Colin Powell Republican middle is an open question. This depends on whether after she gets the nomination she can convince Wall Street that she is only about a level playing field, not Stalin.
Here is my Warren wild card prediction. Trump voters treading water in poverty level jobs living paycheck to paycheck without health insurance — one illness away from bankruptcy — are the Warren wild card.
Michael Moore warned us that Trump would win because his voters were tired of being shit on and just wanted to throw a bomb at the system. My fantasy is that these folks might have buyer’s remorse about having been bamboozled by a gold-plated sociopath and want to throw another bomb at the system by voting for someone who really is in their corner.
Bernie changed the landscape of American politics but America will not elect a 78 year-old angry Jewish man from Brooklyn. Plus his heart attack underscored what Fran Liebowitz told Bill Maher, “Biden and Sanders are not only too old to be President, they should have their car keys taken away.”
Bernie is not the humble dropout type and will only secure his devoted army. Biden is looking worse by the day and can’t seem to talk in full sentences that don’t end with the word “malarkey”. If he doesn’t drop out it’s all the Colin Powell Republican middle and a sprinkling from black people and suburban women. Also even without even a shred of an allegation that Hunter Biden did anything wrong, the Burisma stinking dead fish gift to the Refoxicans was unforgivably clueless. Trump’s, hopefully fatal, mistake was not to leave it alone.
Buttigieg is showing strong support in Iowa. He is a possible long shot with some serious brain power. Definitely the Colin Powell Republicans and suburban women but trouble with black people and Bernie’s army and the problem of getting middle America to vote for a 16 year old gay kid.
Harris would take votes from the Colin Powell Republicans, black people and suburban women but too nauseatingly self-righteous with a sleazy record as a prosecutor where she was guided by political self-interest and not doing the right thing. Watching her try to be folksy when talking to crowds of people by droppin’ the g at the end of words like think’n, watch’n, and hop’n makes me feel like puk’n.
Booker is a decent, unexciting guy and a likely pick for vice president.
Love Uncle Bob
Including this picture of you and me, fifty years ago, for no particular reason except cuteness. The photo does beg the question — what is that thing on your head?